Demographics of the Sandhills Over Time

Many factors have influenced the population of the Sandhills over the past 120 years. The 1929 economic crash, followed by the severe drought of the 1930s, caused a major population decrease in almost all counties in the Sandhills. From the 1950s to the present, economics has been the biggest driver of the region’s population decreases. Profit margins have remained almost constant over the last forty years while the costs of producing a calf, the region’s main cash crop, have increased dramatically. This, coupled with the ever-increasing cost of living, is making it difficult to achieve the same life that people in the region have enjoyed in the past.

The population in the Sandhills has been declining since the 1920s and is projected to continue the downward trend into the year 2050 (table 1). For example, Brown County has lost more than 70 percent of its population since the 1920s and is projected to lose 45 percent of its population between 2010 and 2050. There are many reasons for the population decline, including a more mobile society and the opportunity for youth to see and choose a different way of life through exposure to higher education and technology. Yet the main driver is still economics, which has affected the number and size of ranches in the Sandhills region, as shown in table 2.

Note: 2050 estimates come from a study done by the Center for Public Affairs Research, University of Nebraska at Omaha.

The number of farms and ranches has continued to decline. The remaining ranches have expanded their operations, a necessity to maintain their standard of living. Data from the Nebraska Farm Business Association indicate that in the early 1980s, the annual cost of living for a family of four was $20,000 to $25,000. In 2020 the cost of living was $100,000 (figures are not indexed for inflation). Expenses continue to spiral upward over time, while cattle prices fluctuate. These numbers illustrate the need for ranches to get bigger or for the owners/operators to supplement their incomes with off-farm enterprises to keep up with the cost of living.

One expense that continues to increase steadily is property taxes. For example, in Brown County the tax for Sandhills upland range was $3.59 per acre in 2006. The 2020 rate on the same parcel was $7.64 per acre. Another way to look at this is on a per-calf-sold basis. Assuming thirteen acres per cow per year and a 90 percent calf crop, in 2006 the cost was $53 per calf in taxes. In 2020 the cost per calf was $112.86. That is $59.86 more per calf, cutting into the net profit of the operation. Other costs also have continued to rise, including feed, labor, veterinary services, fuel, equipment, and medical supplies for cattle (vaccines and health products).

According to FINBIN, one of the largest and most accessible sources of farm financial and production benchmark information, in 2000 the average livestock operation in Nebraska realized a net return of $111 per cow, with total direct and overhead cost of $349 per cow. Compare this to a net return in 2020 of $8.04 per cow, with total direct and overhead costs of $794 per cow. Costs have continued to rise, while cattle prices fluctuate from year to year, making it almost impossible to predict the future profitability of most ranches. The result is some ranches going out of business and other ranchers buying the smaller ones, creating larger operations out of necessity.

An interesting part of this story is that for those reporting weaning weights, weights have remained the same, from 588 pounds in 2000 to 587 pounds in 2020, showing that producers are not selling more pounds of calf per cow over the last twenty years. With input costs doubling in the last twenty years, ranchers can only make more money if cattle prices are considerably higher today than they were in 2000.

Another demographic affecting the Sandhills is the amount of land in absentee ownership. Data from the Brown County Assessor shows that more than 38 percent of the land in the county is owned by persons or entities that do not live in the county. This has led to operations getting larger, as absentee owners are more likely to sell the properties and invest in ventures with greater returns. People who have been off the ranch for years sometimes lose their connection with the land and are more likely to sell. This in turn creates fewer operations in the area.

Changes in land ownership in the Sandhills could have far-reaching effects. The median age of ranch owners/operators is sixty-plus. As these individuals retire, who will buy these operations? Ranches may continue to get bigger and bigger at an even faster rate. This does not mean it will be detrimental to the Sandhills, but it may paint the region in a different light.

What do these changes mean for the future of the Sandhills? The good news is that the Sandhills will endure no matter how the population demographics change. Ranchers using best management practices that have been adopted by most operations will ensure the conservation and preservation of this resource. Almost all producers today put a high value on the resources entrusted to them and strive to leave their operations in better condition than when they started.

One almost certain change is that the population will be less than it is today. This places a greater burden on small rural communities to maintain their infrastructure of health care, schools, roads, grocery stores, and other critical services. Where will people go to obtain these services? Will ranching operations become so large that supplies and services will be transported in from outside the area, making it more difficult for local businesses to survive? What impact will that have on local communities?

Despite these potential changes, Sandhills ranchers and residents have a history of resilience and the ability to adapt to change, and the Sandhills will continue to be the land of wide-open spaces, with a sea of grass waving in the breeze through the rolling hills. Future generations will undoubtedly feel as past and present residents do, that there is no better place to live than the Sandhills of Nebraska.